Introduction by James McAllister, Williams College
Dale Copeland’s Economic Interdependence and War is an ambitious book that should receive close attention from both international-relations theorists and diplomatic historians. The author’s main objective is to offer an alternative explanation of the relationship between commerce and international conflict, one that challenges both liberal and realist theories. In his view, liberals are correct to believe that increasing trade and investment flows can enhance the prospects for peace, but realists also have solid grounds for believing that increased economic interdependence can lead to conflict and war. It is because both theories are plausible, Copeland argues, that it is necessary to consider an additional variable that he defines as “a state’s expectations of the future trade and investment environment” (2). When states have positive expectations about the future trade and investment environment, they are unlikely to resort to war. But if a state has negative expectations about the future, it is going to be more willing to consider war as an attractive policy option. It is this argument that Copeland tests against the his
今日の横浜北部はよく晴れております。暑いですが、それでもピークは過ぎた気が。
さて、昨日の午後に都内某所で聞いてきた、国際関係論の論者の講演録の内容を。
しゃべったのは家族と共に来日中のデール・コープランド（Dale C. Copland）というカナダ人ですが、デビュー作（そして唯一の著作）は以下のようなバリバリのリアリズムの理論書です。
The Origins of Major War
by Dale C. Copeland
このコープランド氏、現在はヴァージニア大学の准教授で、おそらく４０代後半。生まれはBC州のバンクーバー、育ちは州都のビクトリアというカナダ人です。
カナダの大学を出たあとにしばらく働いていたらしいのですが、学問への道を諦められず、ジョンズ・ホプキンス大学に入りなおしてから修士をとり、シカゴ大学でミアシャイマーとウォルトの下で博士号をとっております。
そういう意味で、彼はバリバリの「リアリスト」のはずなんですが、話を聞いているとそれほどタカ派というわけでもなさそうな雰囲気です。
卒業後はヴァージニア大学でずっと准教授を続けているわけですが、著作は上の本が一冊のほかに、章をいくつか書いているくらいで、それほど多作家というわけではありません。
ところが現在行っているプロジェクトが「経済相互依存状態と戦争勃発の可能性」というテーマであり、これについて来年かなり分厚い本を出版する予定でして、今回の講演はその内容に基づいたもの。
ということで以下にさっそくまとめてみます。
＝＝＝
●私の所属するヴァージニア大学、以前はけっこうリアリストがいたが、現在はほぼ私だけになってしまった。
●国際政治における経済相互依存について、大きな二つの理論では見方が大きくことなる。リベラルは相互依存がよいことであり、平和を維持する力になると考えるが、リアリストだと相互依存を深めるのは脆弱性が高まるためにかえって危険であると見る。
●この二つの見方が異なるのは、「将来の貿易の予期」（expectation for future trade）が高まるかどうかという点だ。
●私は現在書いていて、夏の終わりに最初に出版社に提出する草稿の中で、戦争になった歴史上の４１のケースを調べてみた。その本でとくにフォーカスしているのは、１９２０年代の日米と、現在の米中の関係だ。
●とくにカギを握る概念が、リアリスト、とくにジョセフ・グリーコやミアシャイマーなどのいう「相対的なゲイン」と、私が主張している「失う可能性の大きさ」（costs of adjustment）というものだ。
●せっかく日本に来たので、とくに日本が関わった歴史のケースについてこれから紹介したい。
●まずは１８８０年代から１９０４年、つまり明治の日露戦争までの例だ。
When trade leads to war
READ THE FULL ARTICLE IN FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Over the past year, the United States has been forced to contemplate a possibility that many have regarded as almost unthinkable since the Cold War: a major military conflict with another great power. For the first time in decades, Moscow has been rattling its missiles to warn Washington about its support for Ukraine. And in early August, following U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, Beijing dramatically escalated its threat of military action over the island.
Almost as startling as the threats themselves are what they seem to suggest about the limits of economic interdependence as a force for peace. Both China and Russia rely to an extraordinary degree on trade for economic growth and to secure their positions on the world stage. China has managed to quintuple its GDP over the last two decades in large measure through the export of manufactured products; more than 50 percent of Russia’s government revenue comes from the export of oil and gas. According to an influential strand of thinking in international relations theory, these crucial economic ties should put a much high
Economic Interdependence and War
"Does growing economic interdependence among great powers increase or decrease the chance of conflict and war? Liberals argue that the benefits of trade give states an incentive to stay peaceful. Realists contend that trade compels states to struggle for vital raw materials and markets. Moving beyond the stale liberal-realist debate, Economic Interdependence and War lays out a dynamic theory of expectations that shows under what specific conditions interstate commerce will reduce or heighten the risk of conflict between a broad look at cases spanning two centuries, from the Napoleonic and Crimean wars to the more recent Cold War crises, Dale Copeland demonstrates that when leaders have positive expectations of the future trade environment, they want to remain at peace in order to secure the economic benefits that enhance long-term power. When, however, these expectations turn negative, leaders are likely to fear a loss of access to raw materials and markets, giving them more incentive to initiate crises to protect their commercial interests. The theory of trade expectations holds important implications for the understanding of Sino-American rela
Biographies you may also like
Chaim potok biography summary example Chaim Potok (February 17, – July 23, ) was an American author, novelist, playwright, editor and rabbi. Of the more than a dozen novels he authored, his first book The Chosen Missing: summary.
Immanuel kant life biography of lady This is the first full-length biography in more than fifty years of Immanuel Kant, one of the giants amongst the pantheon of Western philosophers as well as the one with the most powerful and Missing: lady.
Yoshika rivera scandal 2018 MANILA, Philippines – If Wally Bayola did not sell his laptop to sexy dancer Yosh Rivera, his career could have gone smoothly. Bayola made the admission in a recent interview .
Biodata pahlawan pangeran antasari dan Pangeran Antasari lahir pada 10 April di Martapura, Kalimantan Selatan. Beliau merupakan putra dari Sultan Adam Al-Watsiq Billah dan Ratu Mas Ayu. Sejak kecil, .
Bush laura biography Laura Lane Welch Bush is the wife of the 43rd President, George W. Bush. She served as First Lady from to , advocating for historic education reform and the well-being of women .
Hajjar gibran biography of albert Kahlil Gibran () was a Lebanese-American poet who is best-known for one book of poetry: The Prophet. This book is one of the bestselling books of all time: Missing: albert.
Daniel amos aflac biography of martin This as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with Dan Amos, the CEO of Aflac Incorporated, about his daily routine in Columbus, Georgia. It’s been edited for length and Missing: martin.